Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent, from 7 per cent projected in March, saying elevated consumer confidence will drive spending, besides increased investments. In June update to its global economic outlook report, Fitch said it expects inflation to decline to 4.5 per cent by end of this year and RBI to cut policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent.
'I would not suggest buying these stocks in the dip, as the upside in profit is dented without a safety net for a rainy day.'
From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for March in the US has dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) in June. Analysts now expect the US central bank to start cutting rates in September, provided inflation remains in check and oil prices remain supportive. The markets, analysts believe, partially factored in this possibility.
Citing various macroeconomic parameters that are doing pretty well, India's G20 Sherpa and former CEO of Niti Aayog Amitabh Kant projected that the country is all set to overtake Japan as 4th largest economy in the world by 2025. The size of India's GDP is currently ranked 5th, after the US, China, Germany, and Japan. It overtook the UK in 2022.
The current crisis in the euro zone will not create any major problems for India, but a 10-15 per cent correction in markets is not ruled out if it worsens, says Ridham Desai, managing director and head of equities at Morgan Stanley India.
Terming the just-concluded fiscal as an "okay year", a panel of financial experts said though this fiscal would be a challenging one, the domestic equity markets could turn out to be a "star performer".
The one-year bank deposit and the 10-year government bond finished at the bottom in terms of returns for 10-year and five-year horizons, respectively. Surprisingly, property was the worst performing asset class for the 15-year period.
The two countries also signed a 'Memorandum of Agreement regarding the Assignment of Liaison Officers', which will facilitate the posting of one military officer from each country with the military of the other.
Vishal Kampani has big shoes to fill as his father is close to the Ambanis, the Wadias and the Ruias, says Dev Chatterjee.
The recent stimulus measures announced by China have seen most analysts sit up and take notice.
The report said inflation is expected to remain below 5 per cent over the two years.
Nimesh Kampani, chairman of the JM Financial group, talks to Business Standard on what led to the parting of ways with decade-old foreign partner Morgan Stanley.
In a significant decision on Monday, the Supreme Court ruled that foreign companies would not have to pay tax on their global income earned from business related to their outsourcing arms/units if these are done at existing market prices.
Expenditure on new projects slowed down for the second quarter in a row amid an uncertain global environment and higher borrowing costs. There were new projects worth a cumulative Rs 3.26 trillion in the July-September period, according to data provided by project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This figure is much less than Rs 4.39 trillion in the June quarter (Q1FY23) and Rs 8.46 trillion in the March quarter (Q4FY22).
A combination of one of the lowest labour costs and a large surplus workforce, which will continue to grow until 2031, is one of the key competitive edges that India is leveraging to challenge its rivals in Southeast Asia in the race for a China-Plus-One strategy. Apart from India, the countries in the race to woo global companies that manufacture in China, as well as the supply chains to their country include Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. On the labour front, India is a clear winner.
Institutional shareholders of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) are expecting big-ticket announcements from the company, including timeline for listing of its telecom and retail subsidiaries. They expect this to unlock value in the company, which has seen a sharp fall in market valuation on Friday. This is due to windfall tax imposed by the Centre on refiners and oil producers.
Morgan Stanley expects the central bank to cut rates this week, 125 bps in cuts through 2015.
Morgan Stanley removed banking stocks from its model portfolio when it slashed its weighting on the sector by 500 basis points. Several foreign brokerages, such as UBS, JP Morgan, and Credit Suisse, of late, have also become less optimistic about banking stocks.
India's gross domestic product growth has been on a steady decline since June 2011, when it stood at 8 per cent.
YouTuber Prajakta Koli announced her engagement to boyfriend Vrishank Khanal.
Morgan Stanley, the global financial services company, says India's largest private sector company (by market value) might lose 11 per cent of its earnings per share in 2014-15 earnings estimates if gas prices remain at $4.2 a unit.
On the eve of the Budget, top foreign brokerage houses Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan were advising investors to stay away from the Indian stock markets, saying the risk factors involved in Indian equities are much higher.
Global events will continue to be in the limelight, besides domestic policy.
Food delivery platform Zomato has filed preliminary papers with capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to raise Rs 8,250 crore through an initial share-sale.
Shares of One97 Communications (OCL), which provides financial services under the brand 'Paytm', and has a banking arm Paytm Payments Bank (PPBL), hit the 5 per cent upper circuit at Rs 428.10 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in Monday's (February 26) intraday trade. The up move in the stock on Monday came after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) asked the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), in post stock market hours, to look into the possibility of migrating PPBL customers, using the UPI handle '@paytm', to four-to-five other banks.
After pumping in close to $20 billion in the preceding five months, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have yanked out $220 million from domestic stocks this month. The selling by overseas funds has led to turbulence in the domestic markets, with benchmark indices swinging wildly recently.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, is back on a growth path after six months of challenges as it posted better than expected earnings in the December quarter, brokerages said.
Morgan Stanley said global factors are likely to remain a key influence on India's equity returns over the next one year.
Among the 'Fragile Five' currencies as defined by Morgan Stanley, the rupee has emerged as the biggest gainer since August 28, 2013.
India is world's one of the biggest e-commerce markets.
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
Chief executive officers (CEOs) across sectors have expressed intentions to expand capacities, expecting the government's target to invest a record Rs 11.11 trillion on infrastructure development will act as a catalyst for a jump in consumer demand. "With the government planning a capex of Rs 11.11 trillion, private sector investment will come in a big way. Companies will be preparing for it right from today," H M Bangur, chairman of Shree Cement, told Business Standard. For the past few years, the investment scene in India has been dominated by government capital expenditures; private investments in the manufacturing sector have remained muted.
Nineteen per cent of global fund managers remain bullish on India, suggests the latest BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey (FMS). A total of 249 panelists with $656 billion worth of assets under management (AUM) participated in the survey between February 2 and 8, BofA said. Two hundred and nine participants with $568 billion AUM responded to the global FMS questions, while 145 participants with $331 billion in AUM responded to the regional fund manager survey (FMS) questions, BofA said.
Usually, a fall in oil prices is followed with a cut in retail prices of auto fuels and the government passes on the benefit to consumers. However, Morgan Stanley believes gains this time around will remain capped.
India's most valued company, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), reported a robust performance in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), surpassing analyst expectations. This coupled with positive commentary by brokerages led to the stock of the oil-to-telecom conglomerate surging as much as 4.44 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 1,325.1. It settled at Rs 1,301.3 apiece, up 2.57 per cent.
Urbanisation is a core component to the process of city formation and building out India's competitive strength in the global markets.
Interview with Asia-Pacific economist, Morgan Stanley
With India's stock markets being one of the best performing among the emerging markets, a number of global pension funds are planning to make India-specific allocations.
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